Publication
By:
Nancy Fresco,
Alec P. Bennett,
Peter Bieniek,
Carolyn Rosner
Outlet:
Sustainability Date:
November 17, 2021
Download
Nancy Fresco,
Alec P. Bennett,
Peter Bieniek,
Carolyn Rosner
Outlet:
Sustainability Date:
November 17, 2021
Download
Ongoing climate change and associated food security concerns are pressing issues globally,
and are of particular concern in the far north where warming is accelerated and markets
are remote. The objective of this research was to model current and projected climate
conditions pertinent to gardeners and farmers in Alaska. Research commenced with information-sharing
between local agriculturalists and climate modelers to determine primary questions,
available data, and effective strategies. Four variables were selected: summer season
length, growing degree days, temperature of the coldest winter day, and plant hardiness
zone. In addition, peonies were selected as a case study. Each variable was modeled
using regional projected climate data downscaled using the delta method, followed
by extraction of key variables (e.g., mean coldest winter day for a given decade).
An online interface was developed to allow diverse users to access, manipulate, view,
download, and understand the data. Interpretive text and a summary of the case study
explained all of the methods and outcomes. The results showed marked projected increases
in summer season length and growing degree days coupled with seasonal shifts and warmer
winter temperatures, suggesting that agriculture in Alaska is undergoing and will
continue to undergo profound change. This presents opportunities and challenges for
farmers and gardeners.