Researchers study wind’s effects on North Atlantic climate anomaly

This week, scientists from the University of Alaska Fairbanks are presenting their work alongside thousands of colleagues from around the world at the 2023 American Geophysical Union fall meeting. Some of their discoveries are featured here. You can also find out more about UAF at AGU by searching for #UAFxAGU on social media platforms.

As the planet’s oceans are gradually warmed by the effects of climate change, a vast stretch of the North Atlantic is bucking the trend.

A zone that stretches roughly from Greenland to Ireland, commonly known as the North Atlantic warming hole, is actually an area of relative cooling. Scientists are still working to fully understand why that anomaly exists and what could sustain it in the future.

“It could have a lot of climate impacts, including increased precipitation and more flooding for western Europe,” said Kay McMonigal, an assistant professor at the UAF College of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences.

McMonigal led an effort to determine whether more powerful winds driven by a changing climate could contribute to that cooling process in the decades

ahead. Researchers modeled two scenarios: one in which changing winds affected ocean circulation, and one in which they didn’t.

A comparison of those scenarios showed that modeled wind-driven ocean circulation changes don’t alter the initial timing or pattern of the warming hole. However, that begins to change about 2050, when changes in ocean circulation driven by the changing winds contribute to cooling for the next several decades.

That difference underscores the need for accurate projections of changing wind patterns in the North Atlantic to understand how the region could be affected, McMonigal said. “Different models likely simulate different future wind changes, and we need to better understand what wind changes are most likely to happen to accurately project climate changes in Greenland and western Europe.”